关键词: 煤炭价格, 总体物价水平, 不对称效应

Abstract: Based on time series data from 2008 to 2017 to analyze the influence of coal price fluctuation,using the vector autoregressive model to run the Granger causality test, the impulse response and the variance decomposition analysis to discuss the asymmetry effect of the overall price level under the influence of coal price fluctuation. The results indicate that the decline of the coal prices affect the inflation more significantly than the increase. In addition, with the transition from ppi to cpi, the impact of inflation will be weakened in the long term, which also confirmed the ppi response more sensitive to coal price shocks than cpi. We present a series of countermeasures and suggestions on how to avoid the extreme fluctuation on the overall price level caused by the coal price shock according to this analysis.